Alan Greenspan bitcoin downside deviation probably one of the most qualified experts in financial bubbles. The former Federal Reserve Chairman oversaw system bailouts following crashes in 1987, 1994, 1998 and the early 2000s. Experts however argue that the Fed’s easy money policies enabled risky behaviour.
However there are numerous signs that Greenspan’s overall thesis is flawed. Central banks, with interest rates near zero in real terms and loaded up balance sheets, have almost no ammunition. There is little room on the fiscal front either. GDP, when all items are included.
However the biggest difference between today’s bubbles and previous episodes has been the steady deterioration in economic signals. The fact that global currencies are no longer backed by hard assets as they were during the days of the gold standard, means that there are no standard valuation metrics. Nobody really knows how much a dollar is worth, and how its value has changed over time. Greenspan’s broad arguments are correct on one count. The world has seen systemic bubbles before.
These include colossal run-ups in credit just prior to the French revolution, during the Weimar Republic and before the Great Depression. The trouble is that few people alive today were around back them. Looking ahead, highlights include comments from Fed’s Dudley, Bostic and Williams, BoC’s Deputy Governor and ECB President Draghi Global stocks and US index futures are a sea of red this morning amid growing concerns over the escalating trade war between China and the U. As Bloomberg notes, it’s pretty risk-off this morning no matter where you look: it’s blow for blow in the U.
China trade spat sending European and Asian stocks sharply lower, metals have been melting, EM currencies remain under pressure with Argentina’s peso sinking further. S- China confrontation to be a war of attrition: while China has shown a willingness to make a deal on shrinking its trade surplus with the U. In Europe, Angela Merkel’s political future is on the line amid a crisis over Germany’s migration policy, while U. Theresa May seems cornered by Brexit foes.